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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward script. It often functions as a form of apology. Sorry we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a direct path: the skipper who orchestrated the largest turnaround receives the award. In reality, it creates an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior coaching or simply the greatest upset.

However this year's field is distinctly different. The list of candidates is unusually talented. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with recent conference champions falling away and recent underperformers improving together. During an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in such a turbulent and fun year, he's competing with several other outstanding candidates.

This is how the projected vote could look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been given the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent performance. Under Johnson, Williams has become more confident, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the system instead of freelancing. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been available, he's been capable to create magic from broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the building with the kind of expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But this isn't a typical campaign!

The area where his candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained success. However he comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has engineered a swift turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the leadership stuff, which wasn't a guarantee following his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal staff cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, he trusted newbies. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

After an initial strong start, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the team wobbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting reliable ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

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