Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. They composes two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has has something to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
